El Nino: Not so easy after all?

The latest word is in from the National Weather Service, and it's pretty encouraging when it comes to our fall and winter that are just around the corner.

Right now we are in a developing El Nino pattern, which generally means an easier fall and winter season for the Pacific Northwest. That "generally" however, comes with a big, big asterisk: while the overall winter may bring less rain, snow and storminess than usual, we can still see some slam-bang weather in an El Nino year.

The best example is the winter of 2006-2007, which began with some epic events: the rainiest November ever recorded (with about 16" of rain at SeaTac), some huge snow the night of the Seahawks-Packers football game, and the damaging Hannukah Eve Wind Storm shown in the picture here of downed trees and powerlines on Mercer Island. Once we got into January, the winter did become pretty ho-hum, and even very nice weather near 60 degrees was common in February and March, but after such a wild start to the season it would have been a stretch to call it an "easy winter!"

The NWS sees signs of El Nino now, which typically does mean easier weather for much of our season ahead. El Nino, which is when the Pacific Ocean is warmer than average, usually means more of the wind and rain that hits our region heads south to California, giving us a break. But as 2006 demonstrated, that effect doesn't really take hold until late December or after, making the first few weeks of the season about as lively as any non-El Nino year.

One key concern this year, of course, is the Howard Hanson Dam, and the potential for flooding in the Green River Valley -- including the towns of Auburn, Kent, Renton and Tukwila. This new tool from the NWS makes it easy to see what's happening on rivers near you.

Here's hoping El Nino does provide the break it is known for -- but the wise will recall that every year can bring some tough weather, El Nino or not, and will be ready when it comes.

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